Statistical Methods for the Forensic Analysis of Geolocated Event Data

A common question in forensic analysis is whether two observed data sets originated from the same source or from different sources. Statistical approaches to addressing this question have been widely adopted within the forensics community, particularly for DNA evidence. Here we investigate the application of statistical approaches to same-source forensic questions for spatial event data, such as determining the likelihood that two sets of observed GPS locations were generated by the same individual. We develop two approaches to quantify the strength of evidence in this setting. The first is a likelihood ratio approach based on modeling the spatial event data directly. The second approach is to instead measure the similarity of the two observed data sets via a score function and then assess the strength of the observed score resulting in the score-based likelihood ratio. A comparative evaluation using geolocated Twitter event data from two large metropolitan areas shows the potential efficacy of such techniques

Biometric Performance as a Function of Gallery Size

Many developers of biometric systems start with modest samples before general deployment. They are interested in how their systems will work with much larger samples. We evaluated the effect of gallery size on biometric performance. Identification rates describe the performance of biometric identification, whereas ROC-based measures describe the performance of biometric authentication (verification). Therefore, we examined how increases in gallery size affected identification rates (i.e., Rank-1 Identification Rate, or Rank-1 IR) and ROC-based measures such as equal error rate (EER). We studied these phenomena with synthetic data as well as real data from a face recognition study. It is well known that the Rank-1 IR declines with increasing gallery size. We have provided further insight into this decline. We have shown that this relationship is linear in log(Gallery Size). We have also shown that this decline can be counteracted with the inclusion of additional information (features) for larger gallery sizes. We have also described the curves which can be used to predict how much additional information is required to stabilize the Rank-1 IR as a function of gallery size. These equations are also linear in log(gallery size). We have also shown that the entire ROC curve is not systematically affected by gallery size, and so ROC-based scalar performance metrics such as EER are also stable across gallery size.Comment: 19 pages, 9 Figures, 0 Table

Experiences of COVID-19-Related Racism and Impact on Depression Trajectories Among Racially/Ethnically Minoritized Adolescents

Purpose In 2020, racially/ethnically minoritized (REMD) youth faced the “dual pandemics” of COVID-19 and racism, both significant stressors with potential for adverse mental health effects. The current study tested whether short- and long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic differed between REMD adolescents who did and did not endorse exposure to COVID-19-era-related racism (i.e., racism stemming from conditions created or exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic). Methods A community sample of 100 REMD adolescents enrolled in an ongoing longitudinal study of mental health was assessed before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants were 51% girls, mean age = 16, standard deviation = 2.7, and identified as Latinx/Hispanic (48%), Multiethnic (34%), Asian American (12%), and Black (6%). Results REMD adolescents\u27 depressive symptoms were elevated during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to pre-pandemic levels, and increases were more pronounced over time for those who endorsed exposure to COVID-19-era-related racism. In general, Asian American participants endorsed racism experiences at the highest rates compared to others, including being called names (42%), people acting suspicious around them (33%), and being verbally threatened (17%). Additionally, more than half of Black and Asian American participants reported worry about experiencing racism related to the COVID-19 pandemic, even if they had not experienced it to date. Discussion REMD adolescents are at increased risk for depressive symptoms related to converging stressors stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-related racism, which has the potential to widen racial/ethnic mental health disparities faced by the REMD youth